Last Mile Delivery 2030

How carriers, shippers, cities, and consumers need to adapt

The e-commerce industry experienced an unprecedented boom during the COVID-19 pandemic, and despite a temporary decrease in parcel volume from 2021 to 2022, fast recovery and long-term growth are projected. While roughly four billion parcels were sent in Germany in 2020, around 5.4 billion are expected in 2030 if the market continues to grow at the same rate. Carriers in the courier, express, and parcel (CEP) industry are not only struggling to cope with the increase in parcel volumes but also with rising sustainability concerns, as well as increasing regulations in cities aimed at reducing emissions, especially in urban areas. Additionally, rising consumer demands, such as next-day delivery, real-time tracing, or an easy return process, are becoming increasingly challenging for carriers to meet. Finally, changes in the economic environment, such as labor costs, availability, and rising energy costs, have added additional pressure on the industry.

This strategy paper addresses the complexities of last-mile delivery in urban environments, evaluating innovative solutions and strategic measures to meet increasing parcel volumes and regulatory demands while enhancing sustainability and efficiency.